Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 

This manuscript is very timely and addressing a significant aspect of polar meteorology, Arctic synoptic-scale cyclones. Given the current and future development of open passages due to sea-ice loss, this study may have significant influence on upcoming needs of shipping as well as the scientific analysis of underlying physical mechanisms for future arctic cyclone development.

The paper addresses a highly relevant and topical question in flood risk management. The method and results are an innovative and interesting contribution to the field of research which merits information to the broader public and media.

The future of loss and damage from severe European winterstorms remains an open topic for research, societies and affected communities. This manuscript fills a significant gap in our current understanding of future lossess based on the lastes CMIP6 model simulations. The findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the CMIP6 projections of windstorms in Europe, and emphasize the increasing need for risk mitigation due to extreme weather in the future.

Winter storms in the German Bight are a significant coastal hazard in the southeastern North Sea. The authors use a model for enhanced seasonal forecasting accuracy. This enhancement focuses on storms identified by the highest wind speeds, determined using sea-level pressure data, during winter. The forecasting system, comprising 64 simulations initiated each November, aims to forecast these storms for winters spanning from 1960 to 2018. Initial forecasts for the first winter proved inaccurate. However, by concentrating on specific weather patterns in September and November linked to these storms, the authors refined their forecasting method. Selecting the most reliable simulations based on these patterns significantly improved the forecasting accuracy for winter storms, indicating enhanced predictability of major atmospheric changes. Their simulations might be applied to other similar applications.

This paper brings forward a new use for recent climate models, allowing the representation of convection at a fine spatial scale for the analysis of flash floods in a Mediterranean context. Results indicate a better performance to reproduce floods compared to the previous generation of climate models. This study is the first one that obtains future flood scenarios from the input of a hydrological model whose input is the output of Convection-Permitting regional climate Models over the Mediterranean. There are also hardly any studies on the impact of climate change on floods in the Mediterranean region, and this work provides that information, based on a rigorous hydrometeorological study.